We currently have the choice which group of people to prioritize for vaccinations agains the Corona Virus.
In the present analysis, we use recent demographic data and information about the severity of infections to compare three strategies of vaccination w.r.t. the exected number of severe cases (deaths or hospitalization):
- Random vaccinatinations,
- Vaccinating older people first,
- Vaccinating spreader hubs first, i.e. people with many contacts
We demonstrate that for any reasonable set of paramters that describe the current spreading in Germany, the third strategy performs almost 10x better than the second, which is only slightly better than the first.
These results show that the current strategy targeted by the German government -vaccinating mainly the most at-risk population- is, simply put, wrong. Instead of prioritizing the elderly a priorization of the spreaders, such as social care, medical employees, teachers and other people with high numbers of expositions and contacts must be priorized.
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